El.pub Analytic Issue Number 12
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Respondents could vote on a 5-point scale (strongly agree, agree, don't know, disagree, strongly disagree) on each optimistic and pessimistic topic aspect. The study focussed on what was likely to happen up to 2005, so respondents were given the choice of additionally voting to agree with the optimistic view but with it not occurring before 2006.
Strength of views
If we look at the number of votes for strongly agree or disagree in each topic we find that usability and XML were the ones that evoked the strongest feeling, with usability split between optimistic and pessimistic and XML mostly optimistic. Delivery and market aspects generated the fewest strong views.
The two topics showing the most consensus were IPR and XML - Pessimism in the case of IPR and optimism in the case of XML. In both cases, most of the clear opinions were in one direction.
On the other hand, the mobile topic had many clear opinions but split between optimistic and pessimistic up to 2006 (rather more optimistic).
Business models and market aspects had least consensus, with many undecided and some respondents voting either for both or against both, or rejecting the suggested split between optimistic and pessimistic as simplistic or missing important factors.
Overall, if we add those who were optimistic in the longer term to those optimistic now, we find that respondents are generally optimistic about XML, mobile and user control of content, cautiously optimistic about delivery, content creation tools and usability, less clear about business models and market aspects and relatively pessimistic about IPR.
Table of votes
O now O later Unclear P now P&O Delivery 4 2 2 5 4 IPR 1 6 1 8 1 User control 6 2 1 5 3 Content tools 5 5 2 5 0 Usability 6 4 4 3 0 Business models 6 2 5 4 0 Market aspects 6 2 5 4 0 Mobile 9 2 1 5 0 XML 12 1 3 1 0
[O = optimistic, P = pessimistic, P&O = pessimistic now and optimistic after 2006]
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Last up-dated: 10 July 2017
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